The Trained Nose

Outcast Blue Extrait de Parfum against Outcast Blue

One number per era rather than one number overall — two fragrances can be near-identical at the opening and different things by the evening, and an average hides exactly that.
Ex Nihilo

Outcast Blue

· lasts about 10.0 h

How close, and when

Across a whole wearing, Ex Nihilo Outcast Blue Extrait de Parfum and Ex Nihilo Outcast Blue are all but the same thing. They hold the same distance from each other all the way through, rather than converging or parting as the hours pass.

96% opening · 0–1 h
96% heart · 1–3 h
94% drydown · 3–8 h
Measured across all twenty-four facets, from the notes below — not from the families on the boxes. They share 6 of 12 materials, which is worth holding beside the figures: a pair can share almost nothing and still converge, because different materials can smell of the same things.

What AKIN predicts

AKIN predicts these two are alike, and the evidence behind that is substantial.

Two signals sit on this page and are never averaged: what the note pyramids measure these two to share, and what AKIN’s resemblance graph predicts. Where they part, that is the finding rather than a fault.

The pyramids, side by side

Compared by material rather than by spelling, so a note recorded two ways is not counted as a difference.
top
both — Black Pepper, Saffron
Outcast Blue only — Pink Pepper
heart
both — Lily of the Valley
Outcast Blue only — Cedar
base
both — Sandalwood, Tobacco, Vetiver
Outcast Blue Extrait de Parfum only — Agarwood, Moss
Outcast Blue only — Oakmoss, Patchouli